Beneath
the gold rush
the gold rush
The uneven economy of AI, from labour
and global power to energy and resources
and global power to energy and resources
Renée Friedman, PhD
Global Head of Research
EXANTE
Global Head of Research
EXANTE
Beneath
the gold rush
the gold rush
The uneven economy of AI, from labour
and global power to energy and resources
and global power to energy and resources
Renée Friedman, PhD
Global Head of Research
EXANTE
Global Head of Research
EXANTE
AI is the catalyst, not the conquering hero.
It does not remove demographic, geopolitical and environmental constraints. It relocates and intensifies them: productivity depends on skills, sovereignty depends on interdependence and decarbonisation depends on physical infrastructure.
“In this report, we examine how AI is reshaping each theme, how they interact and what their convergence may mean for the global economy and investors.”
It does not remove demographic, geopolitical and environmental constraints. It relocates and intensifies them: productivity depends on skills, sovereignty depends on interdependence and decarbonisation depends on physical infrastructure.
“In this report, we examine how AI is reshaping each theme, how they interact and what their convergence may mean for the global economy and investors.”
Renée Friedman, PhD
Global Head of Research, EXANTE
AI is the catalyst, not the conquering hero.
It does not remove demographic, geopolitical and environmental constraints.
It relocates and intensifies them: productivity depends on skills, sovereignty depends on interdependence and decarbonisation depends on physical infrastructure.
“In this report, we examine how AI is reshaping each theme, how they interact and what their convergence may mean for the global economy and investors.”
It does not remove demographic, geopolitical and environmental constraints.
It relocates and intensifies them: productivity depends on skills, sovereignty depends on interdependence and decarbonisation depends on physical infrastructure.
“In this report, we examine how AI is reshaping each theme, how they interact and what their convergence may mean for the global economy and investors.”
Renée Friedman, PhD
Global Head of Research, EXANTE
Beyond the investment story
When most people think about AI, they think first about its technology: software, semiconductor chips, robotics and automation. Yet, as we noted in our Alpha Vibes report, The Architecture of Disruption, it is also a capital-intensive story, reshaping bond markets, power grids and equity leadership across the cycle.
Hyperscalers such as Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Alibaba and Oracle are investing heavily in specialised chips, data centres and power infrastructure to capture what they see as a once-in-a-generation shift in the global economy. Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon alone are on track to invest more than $725bn in AI infrastructure in 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts $1tn in AI-related investment globally in 2026, including $581bn in the US.
Hyperscalers such as Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Alibaba and Oracle are investing heavily in specialised chips, data centres and power infrastructure to capture what they see as a once-in-a-generation shift in the global economy. Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon alone are on track to invest more than $725bn in AI infrastructure in 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts $1tn in AI-related investment globally in 2026, including $581bn in the US.
$1tn
forecast global AI investment in 2026
Source: Goldman Sachs
$581bn
forecast US AI investment in 2026
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The significance of this spending extends well beyond the technology sector. As S&P notes, it is becoming one of the defining forces shaping
the global economic outlook, influencing manufacturing activity, trade flows, productivity expectations and labour-market planning.
AI also brings risks beyond the investment case. OpenAI’s Sam Altman
and SpaceX’s Elon Musk have supported a call by Anthropic’s Dario Amodei for a slowdown in the pace of AI development. He cites the loss of control over AI systems, their misuse in cyberattacks or bioterrorism and serious economic disruption.
The surge in AI-related corporate bond issuance also poses risks to bond and credit markets. Higher borrowing costs can filter through to individuals via inflation, tougher mortgage markets, higher credit-card rates and potentially weaker pension portfolios.
The central question for investors, therefore, is not simply whether AI spending will generate returns above the cost of capital. It is whether AI can benefit all levels of society and improve human existence without causing irreversible environmental damage, weakening competition
and privacy or creating greater inequality.
the global economic outlook, influencing manufacturing activity, trade flows, productivity expectations and labour-market planning.
AI also brings risks beyond the investment case. OpenAI’s Sam Altman
and SpaceX’s Elon Musk have supported a call by Anthropic’s Dario Amodei for a slowdown in the pace of AI development. He cites the loss of control over AI systems, their misuse in cyberattacks or bioterrorism and serious economic disruption.
The surge in AI-related corporate bond issuance also poses risks to bond and credit markets. Higher borrowing costs can filter through to individuals via inflation, tougher mortgage markets, higher credit-card rates and potentially weaker pension portfolios.
The central question for investors, therefore, is not simply whether AI spending will generate returns above the cost of capital. It is whether AI can benefit all levels of society and improve human existence without causing irreversible environmental damage, weakening competition
and privacy or creating greater inequality.
The main question is whether AI can benefit all levels of society and improve human existence without causing irreversible environmental damage, weakening competition and privacy or creating greater inequality
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While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as “EXANTE”) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication.
Marketing content. Not investment research.